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中国株レポート
投資の視点
新興成長国基礎データ
中華人民共和国
パプアニューギニア
インドネシア
スリランカ
バングラディッシュ
インド
韓国
タイ
パキスタン
マレーシア
ベトナム
フィリピン
アルゼンチン
ブラジル
チリ
メキシコ
エクアドル
ベネズエラ
ペルー

ヨルダン
ポルトガル
ギリシャ
ポーランド
ハンガリー
ザンビア
トルコ
ナイジェリア
モーリシャス
ボツワナ

Geography

The People's Republic of China covers a land area of 9.6 million sq.km, bordering many countries including Russia, Kyrgystan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Mongolia, Burma, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Vietnam, Laos, and North Korea. Land frontiers total some 20,000 km while the coastline is around 14,000 km. long. The eastern half of the country contains over 80% of the population who live in the coastal cities and fertile plains and valleys of three separate river systems - the Huang (Yellow River) Chang Jiang (Yangtze River) and the Xhu Jiang (Pearl River). China contains 7% of world's agricultural land. The western part of China is inhabited by only 5% of the population but accounts for more than half of the country's geographical area,consisting largely of mountains and desert.

Demography

China contains about a quarter of the world's population. In 1980, a population of 996 million was reported, reaching 1,175 million in 1992. The rate of growth has slowed from 2.2% per annum between 1970 and 1975, to 1.55 in 1980-90. About 27 % of the population is under the age of 15. The government's target is to hold the population to 1,300 million by the year 2000, through the implementation of a strict birth control programme.

In 1990 approximately 26.2 % of the population lived in urban areas, compared with 17% in 1964. Shanghai has a population of 13.4 million, Peking 10.9 million and Tianjin 8.8 million. The population of China is primarily of Mongoloid descent; 93% are Han Chinese, the remainder consists of about 50 groups known as the minority nationalities. The 1983 census revealed that the number of illiterate and semi-illiterate people totalled 180 million or 15.9% of the population; this compared with 38% in 1964. In 1990 only 2 million people were enrolled in higher education, less than 2% of the estimated 125.9 million people aged 20-24. China has suffered from an acute shortage of skilled personnel. This arises not only from the small proportion of those with tertiary education but also from the disruption to the education system caused by the cultural revolution of 1966-76.

Chinese official sources estimated the labour force as at the end of 1990 at 567.4 million, including a large number of unemployed, and it is expected to grow by an average 1.3% per annum between 1988-2025. With 81.4% of the rural work force employed on the land in 1990, China's labour force is still overwhelmingly agricultural and is set to remain so. An increasing number of the rural population is self-employed and engaged in sideline or service activities. In the towns, the encouragement of small-scale collective or individual enterprise since 1979 is reflected in the sizeable number of collectively or self-employed urban workers, which had risen to 42.2 million by the end of 1990.

History and Political Situation

In 1911 the absolute monarchy, the Manchu Qing Dynasty, which had ruled China since 1644, was overthrown and the Republic of China established. From the 1920's until 1949, sporadic civil war took place between the ruling Kuomintang (Nationalist Party) and the Communists.

In 1949, the Nationalists fled to Taiwan, and on October 1st 1949 the People's Republic China was proclaimed by Mao Zedong. A retrenchment of Mao's more radical ideas and erosion of his position after the failure of the Great Leap Forward in 1959 was succeeded by the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution (1966-74). Millions were persecuted by the Red Guards, schools and universities were closed, disrupting the education of a generation, and the economy suffered severe dislocation. The army was eventually called in to restore order.

In 1973 the government was restructured under Premier Zhou Enlai, producing a Politburo coalition of the various factions, including Mao's younger radicals. In 1976 Zhou Enlai, the moderator, died and in the ensuing succession struggle, with the death of Mao in the same year, the economy underwent a short political and economic crisis in which the "extremists" led by Mao's widow Jiang Qing and her "gang of four" were defeated by the "moderates".

Deng Xiaoping, a collaborator of Zhou's ,emerged as party chairman and has been China's paramount leader since 1978. Deng has never taken the top positions for himself, but has ruled through a succession of younger men who share his insistence on the importance of economic advance as opposed to political purity. The period has never been free of tensions between "reformers", like Deng, and "conservatives" worried about the dilution of socialist orthodoxy brought about by greater economic liberalism. Market oriented reforms, and a rapid expansion of foreign trade, brought demands for political change, which Deng has never been reported to countenance. His first two chosen party leaders were ousted after large-scale street protests - Hu Yaobang in 1987 and Zhao Ziyang in 1989, when mass, student led, demonstrations nationwide were only ended by the massacre of unarmed civilians in Peking on June 4 1989. As party leaders, the two men had to take the blame for the failure of communist indoctrination. The massacre was followed by a period of intense political repression, and an obsession with the need for "stability". The collapse of communism in the USSR, however, led to a rethink.

The main danger to the Party's rule, it was argued, was not the pressures for democratisation that economic reform had brought, but rather its failure to achieve healthy economic growth. In 1992, however, Deng Xiaoping, aged 88 and in theory fully retired, re-emerged to launch a new campaign for faster and bolder economic reform, ahead of the important, five yearly, Communist Party National congress, to be held in late 1992. As in the mid-1980s the stress in political rhetoric was no longer on the importance of Marxist orthodoxy, but on the need to achieve rapid economic growth by whatever means seemed most appropriate. Deng's latest front man as party leader is Jiang Zemin, a former mayor of Shanghai, who is still regarded by many as a light-weight, transitional figure. The prime minister, Li Peng, is seen as a "conservative" and as a prot馮* or rival to Deng. The issue of succession on Deng's death continues to be a very important one.

China is divided into 22 provinces, five autonomous regions, and three municipalities. The provinces range from the most populous, Shichuan, with 108 million people, to its vast neighbour Qinghai with just 4.5 million. The most recent adjustment was the 1988 separation of Hainan island from Guangdong Province on the south coast, to become a new province, as well as a special economic zone (SEZ). Four other SEZs had been established in 1980 on the southern seaboard. The SEZs enjoy considerable financial autonomy, and a more liberal climate for foreign investors, though their role was somewhat undercut by the opening, in 1984, of 14 more coastal cities with similar incentives to foreign investment. The autonomous regions have no more autonomy than provinces. The names, however, recognise the pre-Revolutionary predominance of non-Han ethnic groups in Guangxi (Zhuang, an ethnic group in south western China), Tibet, Xinjiang (Turkic, Uighur Muslims), Inner Mongolia (Mongols) and Ningxia (Chinese, Hui Moslems). The municipalities, of Peking, Shanghai and Tianjin are provincial level entities. The next major administrative change is to be the incorporation of the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong, when it reverts from UK to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, Macao to be handed back by Portugal in 1999, and Taiwan, to be "reunited" "soon".

Economy

China is, or may be, the ultimate emerging market. It has been too common in the west to take a romantic view of changes in the world's most populous country, to mistake economic experiment for a policy reform, to underestimate the complexity and time scale of the reform of the urban economy, and to confuse economy with political restructuring.

Economic development and recovery from the disruption of the previous twenty years began immediately after the Communist victory, and with loans and technical assistance from the Soviet Union. China's heavy industrial base was established under a centrally planned system. In 1956, nearly all of the country's commercial and manufacturing companies were converted to state-owned or controlled units. A split with the Soviet Union in 1960 led to the immediate withdrawal of Soviet technicians and advisers, followed by industrial chaos.

Between 1953 and 1980, China's national income increased fourfold, but because of Mao's extravagant population policies, the standard of living only doubled. By the late 1970s, the disruption caused by the cultural revolution and the lack of individual incentive in the urban and rural economies had resulted in virtual stagnation. After the Third Plenum in December 1978, the decision was taken to formulate a new agricultural policy. Following a period of experimentation, the choice fell on a system of contracting production to households, which by 1984 had spread to well over 90% of rural areas. Much of the apparatus of collective farming was quickly dismantled - although most lands still belong to collectives -and households were granted much greater freedom in choosing their occupation. The government monopoly on food purchasing was eliminated and other surplus and side products could be sold in free markets. The new policies are estimated to have brought about a doubling in both agricultural production and incomes during the years' 1979-84. By 1985 The PRC was, for the first time, self-sufficient in grain and cotton.

The reforms in agriculture have stimulated rural industries - largely food processing but increasingly component manufacture for urban factories and simple assembly. Rural industry's development was not planned: it arose from the peasants' initiative, fed by rising prosperity and surplus labour created by mechanisation and population growth. Rural industries' cost bases are often lower than urban factories', and pricing of their output is not subject to regulation.

The success of agricultural reform encouraged the party leadership to address the reform of the more complex urban economy. An over-centralised planning system, and government agencies' control over enterprises had stifled their development and led to severe dislocation between supply and demand. Mao's "iron rice-bowl" system, guaranteeing a minimum basic standard of living, and preventing any more rational distribution of income, stifled incentive. In October 1984, the Central Committee of the party adopted a "Decision on Reform of the Economic Structure". Its aims, amplified in the Seventh Five Year Plan (1986-90) were to create a sound environment for structural reform, to upgrade the technological level of industry and accelerate the construction of key projects, and to continue the improvement of living standards. This was to be achieved by allowing enterprises greater autonomy in production, marketing, allocation of resources and employee remuneration - in a word, decentralisation. A second key component was to encourage exports in order to earn foreign exchange and gain competitiveness. The "open-door" policies exemplified by the special Economic Zones and accompanying decentralisation have generated a significantly higher standard of living for many urban Chinese, and accelerated the pace of economic development.

For the purpose of development priorities the country was divided into three zones. The eastern seaboard was to concentrate on the absorption of advanced technology and serve as the conduit for the introduction of new technology in general. The central region, where the majority of energy and mineral resources are concentrated, would give priority to their development. In the poorest western region, agriculture and animal husbandry were emphasised.

Under the Eighth Five Year Plan (1991-95), the growth rate of GNP is planned to average 6% per annum as investment is switched to agriculture, transport and communications. The service sector is targeted for rapid growth. Again, the first two years of the plan are envisaged as "consolidation", continuing the austerity programmes. However, the reformists' resurgence in 1992 threatened to make the plan redundant. There was talk of revising the growth target to 10% per year. Internal Communist Party documents prepared for radical extension of the "open door" in particular along the fertile and densely populated middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze.

Moves towards the creation of a free market for raw materials were partially reversed in late 1989 as the government strove to regain control over key inputs. However, the success in bringing the inflation rate down, and the alarming spiralling of the government's budget deficit (partly due to the cost of price subsidies) led in 1991 and 1992 to sharp rises in government set consumer prices, especially for the hitherto heavily subsidised staple foods such as grain, as a step on the road to a market pricing system.

China has been extremely successful in attracting investment from Hong Kong and, more recently, Taiwan, especially in Guangdong province, where 3 million people are estimated to be employed by Hong Kong firms. But the response of Western business to the opportunities that have arisen under the new policies has not been as enthusiastic as the Chinese had hoped. Apart from a fear that policies might be reversed, another problem has been the cumbersome and multi-faceted bureaucracy with which foreigners must grapple. Attempts are being made to reassure Western businessmen of the durability of the policies, to streamline the bureaucracy somewhat and to create a business environment more familiar to capitalist countries. Among those moves has been enactment of a patent law and the signing of investment protection treaties with various European countries and Japan as well as taxation treaties with, among others, the USA. In 1991 China adopted its first law on intellectual property protection, and a new foreign investment law streamlined the various producers for different types of investment. The Chinese have demonstrated their willingness to submit to internationally accepted procedures in the event of disputes or defaults on foreign debt.

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