||| ||| ||| |||
中国株レポート
投資の視点
新興成長国基礎データ
中華人民共和国
パプアニューギニア
インドネシア
スリランカ
バングラディッシュ
インド
韓国
タイ
パキスタン
マレーシア
ベトナム
フィリピン
アルゼンチン
ブラジル
チリ
メキシコ
エクアドル
ベネズエラ
ペルー

ヨルダン
ポルトガル
ギリシャ
ポーランド
ハンガリー
ザンビア
トルコ
ナイジェリア
モーリシャス
ボツワナ

Geography

With an area of some 3.29 million sq. km, India is the seventh largest country in the world. Occupying the major part of the Indian sub-continent, it has three main topographic regions - (1) the Himalayas, which extend along the whole of its northern frontier with China, Nepal and Bhutan; (2) the fertile and densely populated Ganges plain; and (3) the southern peninsula, including the Deccan plateau.

Demography

India ranks second (after China) in terms of national population - estimated in 1992 at about 895 million. The level of urbanisation had reached only about 26% by 1990, though migration from rural areas is a strong factor in the continuing growth of major cities. The principal urban centres are Calcutta (1981 population, not yet updated, 9.2 million), Bombay (8.2 million), Delhi (5.7 million), Madras (4.3 million), Bangalore (2.9 million) and Hyderabad (2.5 million). Between 1982 and 1989 the annual rate of population growth stood at about 2.1%. Almost 40% of the population is under the age of 15 and approximately 30% of the population was estimated by the Planning Commission to live below the poverty line.

The total labour force was estimated at 327 million in 1991, of whom 52.3% were engaged in agriculture, 13.7% in industry and 17% in service occupations. The literacy rate was estimated at 52% in 1991 compared to 36% in 1981. There is a large pool of highly qualified manpower, including approximately 2 million engineers and scientists (as against 120,000 in 1950), 10 million graduates of all disciplines, and a total of almost 50 million educated to higher secondary level.

A variety of religions are represented in India, Approximately 83% of the population are Hindu and 11% are Muslim. There are fifteen major languages in use, the most widely understood being Hindi and English.

History and Political Situation

Since independence in 1947, India has been a democratic republic formed of 25 States and seven Union territories . Parliament has two houses: a lower house (House of People) with 544 members and an upper (Council of States) with 250 members. All but two members of the lower house are directly elected for five year tersm and all but 12 of the upper house are indirectly elected by representatives of the States and Union Territories. The remaining seats are nominated by the President. Executive power rests with the Prime Minister and Council of Ministers, who are responsible to parliament. The system of the government in the States mirrors the Council Government, while the Union Territories are directly administered from the centre.

Indian politics have been dominated since independence by the Congress Party or Congress (I) both at State and Central level. In the late 1980s Congress (I)'s position began to decline, partly as a result of Rajiv Gandhi's alienation of former supporters, who have gone over to the opposition.

The recent political history of India has been dominated by problems of ethnic and religious violence and separatist unrest, expressed most dramatically in the storming of the Golden Temple in Amritsar (June 1984), and the subsequent assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi by a Sikh bodyguard (October 1984), and by the widespread communal riots following the demolition of the Ayodhya Mosque in December 1992.

Rajiv Gandhi, a member of the Nehru dynasty that has ruled India for all but four years since independence, succeeded his mother as Prime Minister and leader of the Congress party, initially reinforcing his position in the January 1985 elections but thereafter losing ground as he proved unequal to the tasks of political management. His position was weakened by constant political changes - frequent cabinet reshuffles, the impact of defeats in State elections and the Bofors scandal over commission paid under arms procurement contracts.

India's adventurous foreign policies, in particular the transit and trade dispute with Nepal, the Maldives intervention, the deployment of the army in Sri Lanka, and support for the Afghan government against the Mujahideen: all projections of India as a regional power, have been inspired mainly by domestic political considerations. In 1990 India and Pakistan came close to war over intensifying insurrection by Muslim secessionists in Indian Kashmir.

In the November 1989 elections, the Congress (I) party lost its overall majority, but remained the largest single party with 194 seats in Parliament. The National Front (coalition) Government led by V.P.Singh (Gandhi's former Finance Minister) took office, composed of the Janta Dal with the support of the Communist parties on the left and the BJP (Bharatiya Janta Party) on the right. The government was wracked by constant personal feuds and eventually Janta Dal split. Amid mounting communal violence, provoked by increasingly powerful Hindu militants, a fresh election was called for May 1991. The assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, and postponement of much of the voting, prevented a strong swing to the BJP that nonetheless gained ground. A Congress minority government was form on June 21 under leadership of PV Narasimha Rao, who succeeded Rajiv Gandhi, but it is dependent on the support of other parties for survival.

The new Congress government has moved ahead with reforms including liberalisation of industrial controls and foreign investment regulations, and has initiated the divestment of shares in state companies, and tax and subsidy reform. Moreover, with its economy averaging 5% growth per annum over the last decade, and with the private sector thriving, India is rapidly generating a growing base of urban consumers and successful farmers, provide the ingredients for sustained expansion.

Economy

The Indian economy has a strong element of duality. India is among the most industrialised countries in the world by some measures, with a high level of indigenous technological achievement extending into fields such as nuclear energy, space and satellite communications, oceanography, deep sea oil drilling and armaments manufacture. However, agriculture accounts for approximately 30% of GDP and a much higher percentage of employment. This sector is heavily dependent on adequate rainfall during the monsoon and changes in agricultural output and incomes have a significant effect on many areas of the economy.

Between 1951-2 and 1979-80, Indian GDP grew at a real average annual rate of 3.6%. Since 1981, growth has accelerated to an average of 5.4% annually demonstrating the growing diversity and resilience of the Indian economy. Manufacturing's share of GDP has grown rapidly from 17.7% in 1981 to 27.0% in 1990. Exports have grown noticeably over the last five years, but the Indian economies (and most large domestic business groups) are focused on the domestic market; in 1992 exports amounted to only 6.9% of GDP. India's most developed industrial sectors are iron and steel, chemicals, cement, coal mining and textiles. The structure of Indian industry has changed substantially and will continue to do so as the economy is deregulated, as foreign competition and investment enter the domestic market, and as income distribution changes. (Consumer durables, for example, have grown exceptionally rapidly, in line with rising middle class purchasing power.

GDP per capita of approximately US$ 350 per head reflects the economy's agricultural bias, but India has a substantial urban and rural middle class, estimated at over 100 million, which supports a growing domestic market for consumer goods. The prosperity of this middle class is a product of gradual decontrol of industry and greater agricultural wealth resulting from improved husbandry techniques.

The government still maintains an important role in the economy through its planning process and ownership and control of key sectors (transport, utilities, banking and insurance, steel and ship building). However, central budgetary constraints (total reported budget deficit 1991/92 6.3% of GDP) and the scale of the infrastructure and basic industry investment required to support growth are leading to openings for private sector companies to participate in new projects in these areas. Although there are many political and bureaucratic obstacles, the process gathered new momentum with the incoming Congress government in 1991. The Rupee was sharply devalued in 1991 and made convertible on the trade account in order to stimulate exports, and quantitative restrictions on imports have been abolished, although tariffs still range up to 85%. India has the high savings and investment rates required to generate sustained growth, but further radical opening and decontrol of the economy are required to enable India to match the growth rate of its South East Asian neighbours and to attract foreign direct investment. It does, however, have the advantage of large and active stock markets which are beginning to contribute significantly to funding the private sector . The stock market was partly opened to foreign portfolio investment in 1992, and this should encourage capital inflows to help offset India's continuing balance of payments problems.

このサイトで使用されているすべての写真・文章・画像の無断転載使用を禁じます。
Copyright(2002-20014) かんたん株式会社
このホームページは、投資の知識を身に付けていただくために作られています。かんたん鰍ヘ、投資塾や個別コンサルテイングのみ行っており、金融商品の販売は行なっておりません。投資等のご判断は、自己責任にてするものです。このサイトのご利用により損害が生じても、当社は、その責を負いません