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中国株レポート
投資の視点
新興成長国基礎データ
中華人民共和国
パプアニューギニア
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Geography

The Republic of Peru, the third largest country in South America after Brazil and Argentina, is located on the central section of South America's Pacific coast. Peru is bounded to the north by Ecuador and Colombia, to the east by Brazil and Bolivia, to the south by Chile and to the west by the Pacific Ocean. Its area is approximately 1,285,200 square kilometres.

Demography

The population was estimated to be 22.5 million in mid-1992, growing by about 2.5% per annum. The urban population is estimated to have risen from 46% of the total population in 1960 to 69.3% in 1989. The population of the principal urban centre Lima-Callao was 6.2 million in 1991 compared with 4.7 million in 1980. Figures purporting to show a breakdown of the population in to Indian (50%), mestizo (39%) and white (10%) are suspect. Most of the Indian population lives in the sierra region, many of them in Cyllus, or agrarian villages, dating back to Inca times where Indian languages are spoken and a primitive self-sufficient economy exists.

There were 8.5 million students in 1990 and more than 90% of the relevant age group attend schools, of which 4.1 million are in primary schools, 2.0 million in secondary schools and 743,000 in universities or technical schools.

The World Bank estimates that the labour force grew by an average 3% per annum between 1970 and 1980, and projects a 3.1% annual average increase between 1980 and 2000. Approximately 35% of the population is economically active. Around 34% of the labour force is engaged in agriculture, forestry and fishing, 10% in manufacturing, some 3% in mining and half in the service sector.

History and Political Situation

By the 1520s the Inca Empire, from its base in the highlands of southern Peru, Political Situation held control over the Andes and the Pacific coast from southern Colombia to central Chile. In 1532 Francisco Pizarro invaded the Inca capital Cuzco founding a new capital in Lima in 1535. The Viceroyalty of Peru was formally established in 1544 and lasted until 1821 when Peru won its independence from Spain.

Until 1980 Peru was largely ruled by authoritarian or military regimes. From 1930 to 1963 the main motive for military intervention had been to exclude Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana (Apra) founded by Haya de la Torre. After 5 years of civilian rule by Belaunde's first presidency, General Velarco Alvarado took over by military coup in 1968 introducing a left-wing military regime whose policies included radical nationalisation, land reform, increased government control over natural resources and worker participation in management and ownership of companies. Because government spending and foreign borrowing consequently surged, the second stage of the military government, from the bloodless coup of August 1975 which installed General Morales Bermudez as president until 1980, was dominated by attempts to cope with external economic crisis. Since the election of President Fernando Belaunde Terry of Accion Popular (AP) in 1980, Peru has been ruled by successive democratically elected governments. Belaunde restored constitutional rights and political freedom, while attempting to stimulate the economy by public works programmes financed with additional foreign debt. He failed to address the underlying causes of Peru's growing troubles: inflation, the collapse of traditional export commodity prices, terrorism and the drug trade.

On taking power Alan Garcia, who has a strong social democrat background, introduced a further set of populist left-wing economic policies, intended to achieve high growth rates and increase the living standards of the poor, while reducing inflation and keeping a balance between the needs of entrepreneurs and labour. These won him great short-term popularity and there was short-lived economic growth. In 1988 however the country plunged into its deepest crisis this century and living standards plummeted. as the government completely lost economic control and business and labour defended their interests more forcefully. As a result, long, expensive and increasingly violent strikes disrupted almost all economic activity throughout 1989 and the first half of 1990.

Amid this chaos Alberto Fujimori unexpectedly won the presidential election in 1990. Soon after he assumed office in July, he adopted radical free-market economic policies. But progress was slow because Fujimori had a limited power base in Congress. On April 5, 1992 Fujimori dissolved the Congress based on support from Peru's emerging middle class, a group of technocrats and the Armed Forces. Fujimori's domestic and international position was consolided when his supporters won a majority in the elections in November 1992 for a Constitutional Congress in place of the dissolved Congress,. and in the local elections in January 1993.

Since 1980 the insurgency of the Maoist group, Sendero Luminoso, has been a growing problem in Peru. Based in the department of Ayacucho in the southern highlands, Sendero's subversion spread to the central Andes and the coca growing area in the jungle,and then into cities, mainly Lima and nearby towns. In September 1992, the government captured Abimael Guzman the founder and leader of Sendero Luminoso. Subsequently, almost 20 other high ranking members of Sendero have been captured. Since these arrests, the level of terrorist activity has noticeably decreased, and the level of surrenders of terrorists under the government's Amnesty Law has increased.

Economy

From the 1950s onwards Peru pursued a policy of import substitution-based industrialisation. Industry grew at a much faster pace than other sectors, protected by high tariff barriers and encouraged by expansionary fiscal policies. Domestic demand responded to increasing levels of government expenditure and Peru enjoyed a high rate of overall economic growth. As industrialisation required foreign exchange for intermediate and capital goods, a drive to diversify exports began: the fishmeal industry developed and, more importantly, the country embarked on several large-scale mineral - and later petroleum - projects, at first financed by direct investment, but after 1970, by foreign loans.

The period of the first military government (1969-74) saw an average rate of growth of 5.9%, along with high public spending, heavy borrowing abroad and increasing overvaluation of the Sol. After the removal of President Velasco in 1975, Peru had to come to terms with the legacies of the early 1970s: large fiscal deficits, high inflation and substantial short-term debt repayments. In 1978 the government had to refinance its external debt and began a programme of adjustments.

Economic policy during the Belaunde administration pursued two basic objects: control of inflation and protection of foreign reserves. The main fiscal measure was the reduction of subsidies, but this proved difficult. The country was hit by bad weather conditions in 1983. and as a result, the government was forced to suspend foreign debt repayments and devalued the currency leading to accelerating inflation.

Following the unilateral reduction in the service of Peru's external debt decreed by President Garcia in 1985, the Peruvian economy experienced a short-lived boom in 1986-7, financed through monetary expansion and depletion of international reserves. In 1988, severe budget deficits and uncontrolled increases in the money supply led to hyper-inflation. By July 1990, monthly inflation was running above 60% and rising sharply, output had fallen by 25% from its 1988 level, public investment had dropped significantly, real domestic liquidity had shrunk to one-sixth the level of 1985 as a result of the high rates of inflation, and arrears to external creditors had increased to 63% of the total foreign debt.

In August 1990, President Fujimori launched his economic stabilisation programme aimed at reducing inflation and creating the conditions for the recovery of growth. The stabilisation programme aimed to eliminate the main sources of hyper-inflation, finance the fiscal deficit by non-monetary means, and remove the principal distortions in the economy. The package of measures introduced by the Fujimori government constitutes the most coherent structural economic reform programme under way in Latin America. A private pension fund system based on the Chilean model was introduced in July 1993, the most liberal foreign investment regime in the world has been introduced, new labour legislation is well under way, tax collection has increased sharply as a result of better compliance (albeit from -% of GDP to -%), and the tax system is being simplified and structured to encourage investment and tax consumption. A privatisation programme is under way, with the aim of transferring the 50% of Peru's official productive capacity held by the state in 1990 to private hands by the end of 1995, and to eliminate the drain of state enterprises' massive losses on the government's budget.

Now that the main reforms are complete, they must begin to embed themselves in the Peruvian mind, so that the thrust of reform becomes irreversible. Early indications are that this is indeed taking place and that entrepreneurs are beginning to invest in improved facilities and capacity expansion following three years of painful recession. Infrastructure spending is increasing, as multilateral loans and privatisation proceeds are applied to road, housing and education. Nonetheless the challenges are still formidable: tax collection remains too low for the government to be able to fund efficient administration and investment on the scale needed after thirty years of neglect, the informal sector (estimated to add 50% to Peru's official GDP) is untaxed, small-scale and low in productivity, and Peru must attract substantial foreign savings to develop in many areas of natural comparative advantage and to re-focus the economy towards an export orientation. The reforms are also intended to reduce the role of the state in the economy and enhance the development of the private sector. After a sharp rise in the consumer price index following initial deregulatory measures, the rate of inflation began to decline and economic activity started to recover towards the end of 1992. Inflation was reduced from 7482% in 1990 to 56% in 1992.

To finance the government's deficit, Peru received aid from the U.S. and Japan and new lending from the IMF with arrears scheduled to commence in the first half of 1993. The Fujimori government is privatising many states owned companies in order to not only reduce the government's burden but also to finance the rebuilding of Peru's infrastructure.

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