||| ||| ||| |||
中国株レポート
投資の視点
新興成長国基礎データ
中華人民共和国
パプアニューギニア
インドネシア
スリランカ
バングラディッシュ
インド
韓国
タイ
パキスタン
マレーシア
ベトナム
フィリピン
アルゼンチン
ブラジル
チリ
メキシコ
エクアドル
ベネズエラ
ペルー

ヨルダン
ポルトガル
ギリシャ
ポーランド
ハンガリー
ザンビア
トルコ
ナイジェリア
モーリシャス
ボツワナ

Geography

The republic of the Philippines is an archipelago of over 7,000 islands, lying between the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean; of these only about 880 are inhabited. The total land area is 300,000 sq. km. 47% classified as forest, and 40% under cultivation - the ratio is, however, changing fast with potentially damaging environmental implications.

Demography

Between the censuses of 1980 and 1992, the population rose from 48.1 million to 64.3 million, an average annual growth rate of 2.3% compared with 3.0% in the 1960s and 2.7% in the 1970s. Population density is high in metropolitan Manila (population 7.8 million in 1990) and in the surrounding areas of central Luzon, whereas Mindanao, Negros and other southern islands are sparsely populated. There has been a decrease in the number of people living in rural areas, from 70% in 1960 to 61% in 1991, with the urban population growing by 4% per annum on average during the period.

In 1991 39% of the population was under 15 years of age. The literacy rate is estimated at 83% of the adult population. In 1989, 100% of children of the relevant age were enrolled in primary and 73% in secondary schools. There is a relatively high level of tertiary education: 28% of the relevant group were enrolled in 1989. By mid-1990 the labour force was 23.3 million, of whom 45% were engaged in agriculture, forestry and fishing, 10% in manufacturing, 4% in construction and 39% in commerce and government, community, social and private services. among those "employed" there is significant under-employment. The problem has been to some extent offset by the large number of Filipinos working overseas, in the Middle East and elsewhere in South East Asia.

Income distribution is highly uneven. An independent study showed that in 1983 5% of the population received 88% of all income and 65% only 5.5%; around 5 million families were estimated to be seriously undernourished or starving.

In recent decades considerable progress has been made in developing Tagalog, the language of central Luzon, as a national language, although English is widely used among the largely mestizo elite elements.

History and Political Situation

After over 300 years as a colony of Spain, the Philippines was ceded to the USA in 1898 following a revolt against Spanish rule in 1896-97. The fight for independence continued in 1899-1902 in the Filipino-American war, ending with the imposition of US rule. The Philippine economy progressed, backed by US investment which followed from colonial, and, post 1935, semi-colonial rule. After three years of Japanese occupation during the Second World War (1941-45) the independent Republic of the Philippines was inaugurated in 1946 but political links with the US remained strong.

The constitution of the new republic was modelled on that of the USA, with a bicameral legislature and presidential terms of four years, renewable once. In 1972 this system was over-turned as President Ferdinand Marcos neared the end of his second term when he imposed martial law for fear of "subversive forces". For the next 13 years the Philippines was ruled by Marcos - one man rule based on "popular" support expressed through elections and referenda. Amendments to the constitution were approved in 1981, replacing the parliamentary form with a partial parliamentary and presidential system. In June 1981, under this system, Marcos was re-elected to a six year term.

While Marcos was initially popular, disenchantment grew with his "cronyism", and corrupt election practices, finally boiling over when Benigno Aquino, the most credible alternative to President Marcos, was assassinated on his return to Manila from exile. The urban middle class and the business community demonstrated united opposition to Marcos as the economic situation deteriorated.

After an enquiry into Aquino's assassination had found the military responsible, the opposition movement gained strength. Aquino's widow, Corazon, took the leadership of the opposition movement and announced her candidacy for presidency. The subsequent elections were marked by fraud and violence: Marcos declared himself the victor, but was forced to flee the country following massive hostile demonstrations.

Corazon Aquino restored civil liberties with the drafting of a new constitution, based on the system abolished by Marcos in 1972. The legislature is bicameral, with a senate of 24 members voted on a nation-wide basis and a 250 member voted on a presidential term is a single year. In congressional elections held in May 1987, Aquino was victorious.

By the end of the president's term, in June 1992, her personal popularity had waned, amid a general atmosphere of disenchantment, as the reform hopes of the early days came to nothing. The much vaunted land reform was bogged down in bureaucratic delay and landlord opposition, widespread corruption continued, although the president herself was untouched, and the government perceived as ineffectual.

The election of May 1992, brought to power Fidel Ramos (supported by Aquino) with only around 25% of vote. Ramos undertook to give priority to the restortion of order by persuading mutinous soldiers and radical insurgents to abondon their armed struggle and to improvement of the economy with an emphasis on deregulation and encouraging foreign investment. By November 1992, US military personal had left bringing to an end a US military presence dating from 1898.

Economy

The Philippines has a mixed economy, where the traditional emphasis on agriculture has shiftied steadily to manufacturing and services. While the government is committed to a free market, there has been significant direct state involvement in both central planning and ownership of numerous corporations involved in sectors perceived to be strategic, such as banking, power generation, oil production and transportation. A major retreat from this policy was signalled by a programme of privatisation initiated in 1986, with the twin aims of aiding government finances, and returning businesses to the private sector, together with stimulating growth of the equity market.

The path of the economy since the Second World War falls into distinct phases. Up to the 1970s the economy expanded at a rate of 5% to 6% per annum. The onset of world recession in the early 1980s, aggravated by political crisis following the assassination of Benigno Aquino, caused economic growth first to slow, then actively contract. In 1984 and 1985, the negative growth rate was 7.1% and 4.1% respectively, while the cumulative inflation rate over those two years exceeded 85%. In these years the political turmoil surrounding the Marcos administration triggered massive capital flight and a foreign exchange crisis. By March 1986, it was officially estimated that two thirds of Filipinos were living below the poverty line and 15% of the labour force were unemployed.

The strategy of the Aquino's government was to enhance agricultural productivity as the basis for self-sustaining economic growth. The dismantling of the "colony"- run sugar and coconut monopolies was only one element of a general decontrol of agricultural pricing that was to be the key to rising production. Further stimulation was expected from liberalisation of trade, imports in particular, from looser monetary policy and continuing fiscal deficits. Problems remained however in implementing policies and expenditure programmes, partly due to bureaucratic inertia or inefficiency, and partly because of the new priority given to local and private sector initiative. The growth targets of the plan were not achieved since poor infrastructure, notably electricity generation, held back economic growth. By 1985 some signs of power shortage had appeared and interruptions to the electricity supply became a recurring feature. Although the government plans to build new and reconstruct older power generation plants, it is unrealistic to expect an adequate electricity supply in the short-term. GDP per capita is still below the 1983 level, in sharp contrast in figure with significant growth in other South East Asian countries.

However, the Philippines has abundant natural resources, which include a skilled low-cost workforce. The Philippines' neighbours who were cautious about investing in the country because of political instability and poor economic growth are now seeking the chance to invest in the Philippines especially in Export Processing Zones EPZ) The former Subic Naval Base is the most important EPZ, and Taiwanese companies are investing here although rapid infrastructure development is required for economic growth.

このサイトで使用されているすべての写真・文章・画像の無断転載使用を禁じます。
Copyright(2002-2014) かんたん株式会社
このホームページは、投資の知識を身に付けていただくために作られています。かんたん鰍ヘ、投資塾や個別コンサルテイングのみ行っており、金融商品の販売は行なっておりません。投資等のご判断は、自己責任にてするものです。このサイトのご利用により損害が生じても、当社は、その責を負いません